How PakElectionsOnline.org Prediction System works

Posted by admin on 2008-01-23 in Elections, General, pakelectionsonline
PakElectionsOnline.org features a unique prediction system for election 2008 , based on the combination of statistical analysis of the election 2002 data and popularity/unpopularity of the political parties taking part in the election 2008. First we have made the following assumptions.
  • Due to Mohatarama Benazir Bhutto's death , PPP is expected to get 15% more sympathy votes.
  • PML (N) is expected to get 10% more votes than in last election as Nawaz Sharif is leading the compaign.
  • PML(Q) is going to suffer 35% loss due to its performance in the last government.
  • MMA is going to suffer a 25% loss due to break up of Jamat Islami and also its performance in NWFP government.
  • ANP is expected to get a marginal increase in its votebank by 5%.
  • MQM on account 12th May and its performance in last government is going to suffer a decrease of 15% in its votebank.
Please note the assumptions are biased towards the people's furstration over the current rulers. Recent surveys by independant organizations have suggested that approval rating of General (R) Pervez Musharraf has sufferred a huge loss in year 2007, and PML-Q will be on the recieving end in these elections to pay the price. Hence in our assumption we have given high percentage to the loss of votes than the gains of votes. Therefore despite the presence of Nawaz Sharif , PML(N) might get only a 10% increase in its votebank over the election 2002. Similarly PPP is given 15% of the sympathy votes due to the tragic death of its leader. On the other hand PML-Q has been assigned a 35% loss of votes, MQM 15% and MMA 25%. Based on these assumption , our system performs the analysis of election 2002 result data of each constituency , and calculates the new winning candidate. For example. Let us say in Election 2002 , for constituency NA-XXX , result data was as follows:
Candidate Party Votes
Mr. XYZ-1 PPPP 10,000
Mr. XYZ-2 PML-Q 15,000
Mr. XYZ-3 PML(N) 13,000
Then after applying the above formula, the new result will be as follows:
Candidate Party Votes
Mr. XYZ-1 PPPP 11,500
Mr. XYZ-2 PML-Q 9750
Mr. XYZ-3 PML(N) 14,300

Limitations

  • In case a party did not put any candidate for a constituency in 2002, our system will not be able to predict that candidate as winner.
  • The statistical analysis by definition ignores the ground situation in the constituency , hence sometimes a very strong candidate might not be predicted as winner.
  • And many many more
Our visitors are welcome to comment on this system. We are also collecting news reports and ground data from constituency to put a parallel prediction system. We encourage our readers to post their comments on the constituency which will also help us to collect the public feedback for each constituency.

2 comments so far

Posted by AceofBase on 2008-02-03
This prediction system appears to be very flawed and full of inaccuracies. For starters, if Q-leaue will lose 35% votes, what woudl happen to these votes? Would these not be polled? Or would these be polled for PML(N) or PPP. How likely is an ex PML(Q) voter to prefer PPP over PML(N)? If one nets off your gainers and losers, you are in fact predicting a significat drop in votes polled. So as per your formula, the votes polled would be around 25% which seems extremely unlikely. So please revise your prediction system. When you reduce q league votes, then you must show them in some other parties column. The q league votes are not going to disappear in thin air. If they lose 35%, then it cant be explained by 15% increase for PPP and 10% for PML(N). In particular, those constituencies where q league was winner in 2002, 35% fall in its votes may mean even 50% increase in PML(N) or PPP votes dependeing on what votes they got then.
Posted by admin on 2008-02-03
@AceofBase, Your understanding of the prediction system is correct, if the people of disgusted with their particular party then the assumption is that they are not going to vote. This has happened in 1997 when PPP voters were disgusted and did not vote for PPP. Moreover it is being argued in the media that due to the current threat of terrorism the voter turnout will be very low. On the other hand gain of vote by a particular party is not loss of vote by the other. Hence if PPP gets another 15% of vote then it is the people coming out to vote for them, they will not necessarily be digusted voters of PML-Q, MMA or MQM. There are a lot of predictions being made in media , each having its own flaws (in most cases they are flawed because people want to see their favorite party as winner) , however in case of PakElectionsOnline.org prediction system is totally based on statistical analysis hence may have a relatively small margin of error than others.
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